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OTTAWA — An independent review of the federal government’s progress report on its climate plan confirms that the country requires policy reform and provincial co-operation to get closer to its climate goals while spurring innovation and building a more affordable, competitive economy. 

The 91ɫ��Ƭ released its independent assessment of the , which the federal government was legally required to publish, outlining progress made on the country’s emissions goals. The Institute finds that the federal report offers a credible picture of Canada’s progress, but does not offer an adequate policy response to the growing gap between the country’s emissions and its climate targets. 

While Canada has policies to reduce emissions, the country is not on track to meet any of its climate goals, including its 2035 target and net zero emissions by 2050, according to modelling the Institute conducted with Navius Research. Instead, national emissions are on course to be roughly half way to the 2030 emissions goal. 

The report also recommends ways to accelerate Canada’s progress. Much depends on how the federal government follows through on commitments from its budget and the Canada-Alberta Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), particularly those concerning co-operative action with the provinces including industrial carbon pricing and oil and gas methane regulations.

Crucially, the Institute’s analysis shows that if the federal government gets the details right on industrial carbon pricing, and the provinces implement strengthened systems, it can roughly double the additional emissions reductions from this policy, compared to a scenario where systems largely continue as they stand today.

While better industrial climate policies will speed up Canada’s progress, they are not enough to reach the country’s goals: more policy effort will be needed. The Institute’s report includes recommendations to inform the development of additional policy options to get closer to Canada’s climate and clean economy goals. In the months ahead, the 91ɫ��Ƭ will be developing a more detailed assessment of potential policy options governments can implement to make deeper emissions reductions and bolster low-carbon growth. 

QUICK FACTS

• Canada’s emissions reduction targets are: 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, 45 to 50 per cent by 2035, and net zero emissions by 2050. 
• Canada’s 2030 target requires reducing emissions to approximately by the end of the decade. National emissions were estimated at 694 megatonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent (Mt) in 2024, or 8.5 per cent below 2005 levels. 
• The Institute’s analysis shows Canada’s emissions are projected to be between 18 and 22 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, depending on the final design of key policies—roughly half way to the 2030 target.  
• Estimates for 2024 show emissions from oil and gas up 9 per cent since 2005, while emissions from transport (+0.2 per cent) and buildings (-3.5 per cent) have been largely flat. Emissions from electricity (-59 per cent) and heavy industry (-11 per cent) have fallen significantly.

QUOTES

“The further Canada veers away from its climate targets, the steeper the path forward. That puts critical economic opportunities at risk—especially as our non-U.S. trading partners are rapidly decarbonizing their economies and looking for solutions. There is no shortage of policy tools that can accelerate climate progress while strengthening Canada’s economy and making life more affordable—but our assessment clearly shows that governments need to work together to put better policies in place for the country to reach its goals.”  

— Rick Smith, President, 91ɫ��Ƭ

“The data leave no doubt that Canada’s climate progress is off track. Fortunately, governments have options to put well-designed climate policy in place that can reduce emissions, make life more affordable, and unleash economic growth. Smart, cost-effective climate solutions can help Canada diversify trade, attract new investment, and make the economy stronger and more resilient in the face of an uncertain future.”

— Dave Sawyer, Principal Economist, 91ɫ��Ƭ

RESOURCES

• Report | Independent Assessment 2025 Progress Report on the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan
• Insight |
• Blog | How to get Canada’s climate plan back on track
• Insight |
• Insight |

MEDIA CONTACTS

Claudine Brulé (Eastern Time)
(226) 212-9883
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca 

Krystal Northey (Mountain Time)
(226) 212-9883
knorthey@climateinstitute.ca 

91ɫ��Ƭ the 91ɫ��Ƭ

The 91ɫ��Ƭ is Canada’s leading climate change policy research organization. The Institute produces rigorous analysis, economic modelling, and in-depth research focused on incentivizing clean economic growth and low-carbon competitiveness, reducing emissions and accelerating Canada’s net zero energy transition, and making our economy and infrastructure more resilient to a warming climate.