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Climate change will that already struggle with water shortages, like the southern Prairies and the interior of British Columbia (Bonsal et al. 2019). A drought is a that lasts long enough to cause serious water shortages for natural ecosystems, agriculture, and people.

Climate change is making droughts more frequent and more severe

• Climate change has made , and the trend is expected to continue to worsen (IPCC 2023, p. 67; Chiang et al. 2023). 
• Climate change exacerbates drought, both because it shifts rainfall patterns and because it increases temperatures, leaving ecosystems increasingly vulnerable to dry conditions. Rising temperatures strain water supplies by increasing both evaporation rates and (Walker and Van Loon 2023), resulting in (Overpeck and Udall 2020).
• Rising global temperatures (United Nations n.d.; Zhang et al. 2019), reduce snowpack levels, and threaten glacial run-off as glaciers recede.
• Climate change is also causing droughts to develop faster, making “” more common (Yuan et al. 2023). This new reality makes forecasting and monitoring droughts more difficult.
• Over the 21^st century, the total land area subject to drought is , with over 40 per cent of global land area expected to experience year-round drying by the end of the century, (IPCC 2023, p. 1119; Cook et al. 2020).

Climate change worsens conditions in drought-prone regions

• The southern Prairies and the interior of British Columbia are especially susceptible to drought and have seen several prolonged droughts in the past century. 
• Climate change is likely to substantially increase the in interior B.C. and the southern Prairies by end-of-century (Bonsal et al. 2019). 
• In the Western provinces, declining mountain snowpack and shrinking glaciers will further , compounding drought risk.
• Much of Southern Canada may experience more frequent by the late century, including in B.C., the Prairies, and Ontario (Dai, 2012; Zhao and Dai, 2015).

Explore the climate costs tracker to visualize climate-fuelled weather events in Canada.

Droughts are costly disasters

• Droughts were an important factor in the recent dramatic increase in crop insurance payments in Canada, which surged from $890 million in 2018 to (Arnason 2024). 
• Drought insurance payouts to Alberta’s farmers and agri-businesses reached a record , more than tripling the payouts from the 2021 drought, according to the Agriculture Financial Services Corporation (Smith 2024).
• Due to severe drought, crop production in Saskatchewan fell by a record 47 per cent in 2021. That year, Saskatchewan was the only province to see its economy contract (-0.3 per cent). that while “activity was up in most sectors of the economy, those gains were entirely negated by the worst drought in nearly two decades” (Statistics Canada 2022).
• In the Abitibi region of Québec, hay producers received a record $6.8 million in compensation for the 2023 drought, more than triple the annual average (Cameron 2024).
• Droughts , cutting revenue for utilities, increasing reliance on fossil-fuel generation (Statistics Canada 2024), and making electricity (CBC News 2023).
• In January 2024, drought conditions in both B.C. and Manitoba meant lower reservoir levels at hydroelectric facilities, forcing the two provinces to from other jurisdictions (Canadian Press 2024).
• Water shortage in its reservoirs forced Hydro-Québec to halve its electricity exports in 2023 and 2024, resulting in a $866 million drop in revenue for the utility in 2024 alone (Hydro-Québec 2024). Similarly, a drought in Manitoba in 2021 limited power production, resulting in a for Manitoba Hydro (Manitoba Hydro 2022).

Droughts threaten the health of Canadians

• Droughts can , as sluggish flows and more evaporation concentrate contaminants in water bodies and promote toxic algal blooms (Yusa et al. 2015).
• Droughts can contribute to (Yusa et al. 2015) due to windblown dust from dried-out soils, exacerbating conditions such as asthma. 
• Droughts can increase the likelihood of infection among recreational water users at times when warm weather drives engagement in water activities (Yusa et al. 2015).
• Drought is associated with , such as anxiety, depression, and increased risk of suicide, especially for farmers, who can experience financial and emotional stress during droughts (Ellis and Albrecht 2017).

Droughts worsen the risk of floods, wildfires and ecosystem damage

• Droughts fuel wildfires by drying out vegetation and soils, creating highly flammable conditions. Prolonged water stress , causing them to shed leaves and needles, lose moisture, and eventually die, adding to the amount of available fuel. At the same time, hot, dry conditions lower humidity and that sparks from lightning, equipment, or human activity will ignite a fire. Once fires start, low moisture allows them to , increasing the risk to communities, ecosystems, and critical infrastructure. 
• Attribution studies show that the increase in drought-like hot and dry weather behind the exceptional wildfires in Eastern Canada in 2023 was made by climate change.
• July was exceptionally in Jasper National Park, with drought conditions exacerbating fire risk and making forests more prone to ignite ahead of the 2024 wildfire that destroyed much of the Jasper townsite.
• . Dry conditions hurt soil quality and kill off vegetation, making soil less able to absorb water. If heavy rainfall follows a drought, water can run off more easily, which increases the risk of flooding (Bonsal et al. 2019).  
• Droughts in northwest British Columbia, particularly during July and August when salmon are migrating to their upstream spawning areas, can cause severe and lasting damage to their populations, to ecosystems, and to the Indigenous Peoples that rely on them (Curran and Marsden 2021).

Governments can do a lot to protect Canadians from the worsening risk of droughts

Scientists have warned that the consequences of climate change will only get worse as the concentration of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere increases (IPCC 2022). Governments around the world, including Canada’s, must act immediately to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming.

Because the impacts of climate change are already here and getting worse, communities and governments must work together to adapt and prepare for the increased risk of drought today. Specific measures governments can take include:

• Plan proactively: All orders of governments can prepare for shortages by developing and implementing proactive drought response plans, such as . These plans include clear strategies for managing water resources, coordinating across sectors, and protecting vulnerable communities (Government of Alberta 2024).
• Conserve water: Water conservation can reduce the adverse impacts of droughts when supplies are low. This can include voluntary or mandatory during dry periods. Governments may need to implement stronger policies to prevent waste, such as . 
• Protect water quality:  Increased water quality monitoring during droughts helps safeguard drinking water and protect recreational water users from adverse health effects, such as parasites and toxins (Yusa et al. 2015).
• Strengthen agricultural resilience: Governments can increase drought resilience by improving early warning systems, such as the (Agriculture and Agri Food Canada 2024), supporting investment in , and incentivizing the use of drought-tolerant crop varieties. 
• Support farming communities: Strong crop insurance, , and are vital for farming families and agricultural communities coping with financial and emotional stress during droughts (Bonsal et al. 2011; Hart et al. 2011). 
• Invest in structural measures for hydroelectricity: The hydroelectricity sector could adapt to drought by continuing to invest in , such as reservoirs, to ensure that energy production can continue during low water levels (BC Hydro 2024).

Resources

• (Agriculture and Agri Food Canada 2024)
• (World Weather Attribution 2024) 

Experts available for comment and background information on this topic:

• Ryan Ness is Director of Adaptation Research at the 91ɫ��Ƭ and the lead researcher on the Institute’s Costs of Climate Change series (Eastern Time, English and French).

For more information or to interview an expert, please contact: 

Claudine Brulé
Lead, Communications and External Affairs
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca
(226) 212-9883  (Eastern Time, French & English)

Krystal Northey 
Lead, Public Affairs 
knorthey@climateinstitute.ca
(226) 212-9883 (Mountain Time, English)

References 

Agriculture and Agri Food Canada. 2024. Canadian Drought Monitor.  

Arnason, Robert. 2024. “Crop Insurance Costs Explode.” The Western Producer, February 29.

BC Hydro. 2024. “How we manage drought conditions.”  

Bonsal, B.R., D.L. Peters, et al. 2019. “Changes in freshwater availability across Canada; Chapter 6 in Canada’s Changing Climate Report.” Government of Canada.  

Bonsal, Barrie, Rajesh R. Shrestha, Yonas Dibike, et al. “Western Canadian Freshwater Availability: Current and Future Vulnerabilities.” Environmental Reviews 28, no. 4 (2020): 528–45.

Cameron, Daphné. 2024. “Compensations pour Pertes Agricoles: Un Milliard pour les Agriculteurs après une Année Désastreuse.” La Presse, March 21. .  

Canadian Press. 2024. “Drought in Western Canada Impacting Hydropower Production as Reservoirs Run Low.” Business in Vancouver, January 29.   

CBC News. 2023. “Drought is causing B.C. utilities to import more power — and that will affect your bills in 2024.” December 21.

Chiang, Felicia, Omid Mazdiyasni, and Amir AghaKouchak. 2021. “Evidence of Anthropogenic Impacts on Global Drought Frequency, Duration, and Intensity.” Nature Communications 12(1).

Cook, Benjamin I., Justin S. Mankin, Kate Marvel, A. Park Williams, Jason E. Smerdon, and Kevin J. Anchukaitis. 2020.  “Twenty-First Century Drought Projections in the CMIP6 Forcing Scenarios”. Earth Future 8 (6).   

Curran, Deborah, and Tara Marsden. 2021. Ayookxw responding to climate change. 91ɫ��Ƭ. June 21. /publications/ayookxw-responding-to-climate-change/ 

Dai, A. 2012. “Increasing Drought under Global Warming in Observations and Models”. Nature Climate Change 3, 52–58.

Ellis, Neville R., Albrecht, Glenn A. 2017. “Climate change threats to family farmers’ sense of place and mental well-being: A case study from the Western Australian Wheatbelt”. Social Science and Medicine 175, 161-168.  

Government of Alberta. 2024. Alberta Drought Response Plan. Environment and Protected Areas. August 14.  

Hart, Craig Richard, Helen Louise Berry, and Anne Maree Tonna. 2011. “Improving the mental health of rural New South Wales communities facing drought and other adversities”. The Australian Journal of Rural Health 19 (5).

Hydro-Québec. 2024. Une transition ambitieuse: Rapport Annuel 2024.  

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2023. Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Manitoba Hydro. 2022. “Manitoba Hydro posts $248 million consolidated net loss due to drought: 2021-22 annual report.”  September 29.

Natural Resources Canada. 2024. “Drought.” Natural Resources Canada, April 12..

Overpeck, Jonathan T., and Bradley Udall. 2020. “Climate Change and the Aridification of North America.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117(22): 11856–11858.    

Smith, Madeline. 2024. “Farmers, Ranchers Worry 91ɫ��Ƭ Coming Season Amid Drought, High Pasture Insurance Payouts.” CBC, February 26. .  

Statistics Canada. 2022. “Drought drags down Saskatchewan Economy in 2021”. Statistics Canada. September 23.   

Statistics Canada. 2024. An energy snapshot: First quarter of 2024 review.

Tam, Benita Y.; Szeto, Kit; Bonsal, Barrie; Flato, Greg; Cannon, Alex J.;  & Rong, Robin. 2019. “CMIP5 drought projections in Canada based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index”. Canadian Water Resources Journal / Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques, 44 (1), 90-107.

United Nations. n.d. “Water – At the Center of the Climate Crisis.” United Nations.

Walker, David, and Anne F. Van Loon. 2023. “Droughts Are Coming on Faster.” Science 380(6641): 130–132.  

World Weather Attribution. 2023. “Climate change more than doubled the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions in Eastern Canada.” August 22.    

Yuan, Xing, Yumiao Wang, Peng Ji, Peili Wu, Justin Sheffield, and Jason A. Otkin. 2023. “A Global Transition to Flash Droughts under Climate Change.” Science, 380(6641), 187–191.  

Yusa, Anna, Peter Berry, June J. Cheng, Nicholas Ogden, Barrie Bonsal, Ronald Stewart, and Ruth Waldick. 2015. “Climate Change, Drought and Human Health in Canada.” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 12(7): 8359–8412.   

Zhang, Xuebin, Greg Flato, Megan Kirchmeier-Young, Lucie Vincent, Hui Wan, Xiaolan L. Wang, Robin Rong, John Fyfe, Guilong Li, and Viatchelsav V. Kharin. 2019. “Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Across Canada.” In Canada’s Changing Climate Report, edited by E. Bush and D. S. Lemmen, 112–193. Government of Canada.

Zhao, T. and Dai, A. 2015. “The magnitude and causes of global drought changes in the twenty-first century under a low-moderate emissions scenario”. Journal of Climate 28, 4490–4512.